100 Days Out: Biden's Bombshell and the Race to November
This is a BFD....
This has been another extraordinary, unprecedented, remarkable, hellacious [insert your adjective here] week in American politics. Today’s announcement by President Biden, while not completely unexpected, hit the nation like a tsunami spreading across the countryside.
The timing and method were as unprecedented as the news itself: a Sunday morning announcement from a COVID-stricken President, delivered via a letter on the platform formerly known as Twitter.
Despite many observers (myself included) sensing its inevitability, the declaration still sent shockwaves through the American political landscape. This wasn't just breaking news; it was earth-shattering.
From the NYT:
Let’s hold off for a minute on the notion that the most powerful person in the world made this announcement with just over 100 days before the November election, and less than a month from the nominating convention.
That is huge, but this announcement wasn’t made from the Oval Office on a live broadcast, but directly to the world on a social media platform. As the soon-to-be former president famously said to Barack Obama back in 2010 upon the signing of the Affordable Care Act, “this is a big fucking deal!”
Wow, This Really Happened. Now What?
There are already tons of pundits and observers weighing in on what this all means, but I want to share a few quick thoughts from my perspective, particularly as it relates to the mechanics of how a campaign works, as well as what it may mean for ad strategies and tactics moving forward.
Note: For the moment, we are going to assume that Biden’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, along with other key Democratic leaders, makes her nomination at the DNC in August inevitable. Of course, facts on the ground can change, but to stay on point here we are going to go with it.
So, what does it mean?
Fundraising
Donald Trump has cashed in – BIG – since the still shocking attempt on his life just last week. Mega-billionaires Elon Musk, Bill Ackman, and Miriam Adelson have already pledged hundreds of millions to candidate Trump in his effort, with more likely in the pipeline.
Meanwhile, the change at the top of the ticket for Democrats will almost certainly lead to a new boost in high-donor commitments, but will also result in a surge of lower donor dollars for democrats as supporters get a new jolt of energy after a very difficult several weeks.
Either way, all systems are go for unprecedented ad spending in Election ‘24.
Ad Content
The GOP will have very big guns trained directly on Kamala Harris as she assumes the mantle for Democrats. We’ve seen some exceedingly tough language in ads about immigration, the economy, and, well immigration, immigration, and immigration. Expect much more of that with Harris being labeled the face of Biden-Harris border efforts.
I’d also expect to see a continuation of a Biden “fitness to serve” message, with criticism that as VP, Harris was not direct with the American people about Biden’s physical condition and ability to serve.
On the Democratic side, expect to see even more messaging targeted at all-important suburban, women voters around the very potent issue of reproductive rights. With swing state voters in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan critical to victory for Democrats, new advertising will look to drive support among this audience, as well as independent voters.
Meanwhile, states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia will see revamped advertising efforts targeted at younger voters, and most importantly African-American and latino “base” voters, which according to polling, have been flirting with a Trump candidacy. Trump’s team even had “Only Fans model and influencer” Amber Rose address the RNC last week.
FWIW, I think claims by the Trump campaign that they have been making significant inroads with these groups have been wildly overstated. A Harris candidacy will likely put the brakes on any serious efforts by Trump-Vance to make inroads there.
The Convention
This is no small thing. While much is being written about delegate counts, party rules, nomination processes, floor votes and all the rest think for a minute about the logistics. The planning, scripting, pre-production, content production, staging, speakers…all of it…has been in the works for months, if not longer.
Now, everything needs to be re-worked in 29 days. That is also a “BFD,” but a massive opportunity as well.
I have attended six (!!) democratic conventions. Almost every time they are basically structured as an opportunity to "introduce" (or re-introduce) the candidate to the American people, chock full of glossy homages and testimonials like Bill Clinton’s 1992 “Man from Hope” video showing a young Bill Clinton famously shaking JFK’s hand, or the awesome scale of a 70,000 seat football-stadium sized introduction to Barack Obama in Denver in 2008.
But this is different. Kamala Harris is a known quantity, and attempting to create a moment to “coronate” her as the nominee would be a mistake.
What the American people need to see is her speaking plainly and directly to the American people, along with a deep bench and a deep roster of smart, engaged Democrats who will be part of a team that can turn the country (and states with strong Democratic governors like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Kentucky, and others) around in the next four years.
I have argued that with a so-called “open convention” Democrats would have cashed in big, with massive attention and TV ratings, by showcasing all of the candidates ready and able (in my opinion) to take on Donald Trump. I even developed an audacious plan to do just that, which we will just have to put on the shelf for the moment. 😆
Showcasing governors, senators, and other Democratic leaders can offer a sharp contrast to both the 81-year-old Biden and the Trump campaign. It highlights a different type of leadership with new faces, countering Trump's 'cult of personality' approach that elevates him at the expense of other viable GOP leaders.
Pulling it off will take a truly 24-7 planning effort by a massive team of hundreds of full-time staff and strategists, countless contractors, consultants, and vendors, as well as the work of thousands of volunteers during the convention itself.
Let’s go back to the tape for this one:
There’s More But for the Moment Let’s Take A Deep Breath 🧘🏼 😮💨
We don’t have the bandwidth to cover more tonight, but keep an eye out in the coming days for additional thoughts, or “special reports” on Election ‘24 as needed.
I’m looking forward to getting our next issue of ctrl+alt+persuade out with a deep dive on advertising strategies (hopefully including new ads), media spending, and convention talk for all of our readers.
For now, please feel free to share your thoughts below. I want to know what you think!!