About that Elephant (Ok, maybe Donkey) in the Room...
What happens next in Election '24?
There is only one story in politics right now. To hear the latest speculation, just check your phone notifications, tune into cable news, or answer that call from your politically-minded relative you've been avoiding. You'll get an earful.
It is everywhere and, for the moment at least, the political world is absolutely stuck on its axis.
I wrote about this ten days ago and my feelings on the issue still have not changed. Clearly, I don’t have a say in the matter 😲, so we’re going back to doing what we do best: share the latest ads, break down the polling, and follow the money in an attempt to give readers a different view of this than you may be getting out there.
What story are the campaigns telling through their advertising? Where are they putting their money? And what do those crucial swing state polls really reveal? These are the questions that can give us real insight into the state of the race, beyond the breathless commentary and armchair quarterbacking.
So, while the rest of the political world is playing a guessing game, we're sticking to the facts. The data doesn't lie, and it often tells a different story than what you hear from political leaders on both sides, as well as the beltway insiders.
(Full disclosure: I’ve been a certified pundit this week, with commentary in the LA Times here and a radio interview on the state of the race among Hollywood insiders that you can listen to below.)
#1: The Money: “We’re Talking Liberals” 📻 💰
While many political types, especially elected officials, will say the decision to continue the campaign is with President Biden, his family, and his senior advisors, the reality is that donors (especially megadonors) play an incredibly outsized role in what happens next.
As we have written for months, this will be the most expensive campaign in US History. The Biden campaign spent over $1 Billion in the 2020 race, and most expect that this race will cost at least that and with the current headwinds facing his re-election he will need even more than.
KNX Radio in LA asked me for thoughts on where donors will go.
Take a listen.
(Note: this interview was before George Clooney’s NYT op-ed, and while some may argue that political opinions from the George Clooney’s of the world are just more noise from the “Hollywood elites,” believe me when I say: that op-ed was huge.)
#2: What do the Numbers Tell Us?
The Biden team has tried to make the case that his numbers have held relatively firm since the debate. We wrote back on June 21st about the Biden team’s $50 Million ad blitz in swing states leading up to the debate, and said then that if the numbers didn’t move the Biden campaign may need to “recalibrate.”
Well, they definitely didn’t move but that $50M likely played a role in at least keeping him somewhat close to Trump post-debate. However, much of the coverage of swing state polls neglect to mention it…that’s a mistake.
#3 Why Aren’t We Seeing Any Ads?
Oh, they’re running. Most of us just aren’t seeing them. Fear not loyal reader, we’re here to show you what those lucky swing state voters are seeing every time they turn on their TV or phone-like device.
The strategies here are fascinating. Surrogate groups and GOP Senate candidates are using the Biden age issue to diminish Democrats more generally, while the Trump team follows the course they have since almost Day One…raise plenty of money, but don’t spent it on media. At least not media that costs anything. 🤨
Meanwhile, Biden is doing anything possible to change the subject. That won’t be easy.
Trump Supporting Super Pac’s Go for the Jugular
This spot hits Biden directly on his debate performance, and his flub on Medicare. Not sure who funds “America’s Next” PAC (free paid subscription to anyone that can tell me who it is), but this is just the first of mega-spends by Trump-aligned Super Pac’s that will hit the airwaves with blistering attacks on Biden in the coming weeks and months.
Down-Ballot Races Use Debate to Put Democrats on the Defensive
Across the country, GOP candidates are gleefully tying their Democratic opponents to the President with their latest ads. Here, GOP nominee Kari Lake (AZ), who trailed her opponent Democrat Ruben Gallegos by as many as 13 points, is linking her opponent even more closely to Biden and according to recent polling is closing the gap significantly.
Biden Uses SCOTUS Decision to Warn of Grave Dangers
Clearly, the Trump Immunity decision by the Supreme Court was not popular with the great majority of legal observers or the public. Here we see just one of many Biden campaign spots that have run post-debate blasting the decision, and warning of the dangers of an unconstrained Trump Presidency.
Is this a significant issue? Yes. Is it enough to stop the bleeding from the debate? No.
Trump Raises 💵 and “Truth’s” His Way Through the Post-Debate Frenzy
In a truly Trumpian moment that didn’t get a whole lot of attention in the aftermath of the Biden debate performance, the former President took to his Truth Social to claim that he had the “greatest debate performance in the long and storied history of Presidential Debates.”
Sure. Ok, Donald.
This remarkable claim aside, Trump has been strangely quiet (and disciplined!!) about the debate. Have any thoughts on why? Share a comment below.
#4: About That Campaign Spending
Political ad spending on digital platforms has surged in the last week or so, painting a picture of campaigns scrambling to shape the narrative. Data from Google and Meta (Facebook/Instagram) over the past week reveals a staggering $17.8 million poured into digital advertising, with Meta claiming the lion's share at $12.3 million compared to Google's $5.5 million.
The Biden campaign and its affiliates dominate spending across both platforms, signaling an aggressive push to counter post-debate fallout. Interestingly, while the Trump campaign maintains a presence, its spending pales in comparison to Biden's digital blitz.
The geographic focus of this ad spend tells its own story, with both platforms showing a laser focus on key swing states. Pennsylvania emerges as the top target, followed closely by Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina. This concentration of resources in battleground states underscores the campaigns' recognition of where this election will likely be won or lost. While the data reflects the immediate aftermath of the debate, it also hints at the broader strategies at play: the Biden campaign's attempt to regain footing through sheer digital presence, and the ongoing battle for the hearts and minds of voters in states that could tip the electoral balance.
You may be thinking — wow, this is interesting but those charts, what eyesores!! 👁️Well, gathering this info is a LOT harder than you would think.
Disclaimer #1: The data was crunched for us courtesy of Anthropic/Claude by downloading publicly available data from the social media giants and asking for a summary of the findings from my AI friend, Claude.
Disclaimer #2: I wrote an article in the academic/news publication The Conversation this week titled “Unregulated online political ads pose a threat to democracy” that talked about just how hard it is to find out how much political spending is happening on digital platforms, and who is paying for it. I really hope you’ll read it. A little nerdy 🤓 but super important, and well worth your time!!
So…What’s Next?
We all know what’s next…tick, tick, tick. So we wait.
I’m looking forward to talking about the wild, wacky, and plain crazy in advertising, technology, and media in this election, but for the moment we are all on hold. There is a GOP convention next week though, right?
For now, please share your thoughts on this crazy campaign season, make sure to share this blog with interested friends and colleagues, and check out our new YouTube channel for updates on the latest ads and more interviews.
PS - Share any ads or content (good, bad, or awful) here.
Also on the lookout for contributors. If you have something to share about the ad world and Election ‘24 reach out.