Debating the Future: How AI, Money, and Twitch are Shaping the 2024 Election
The (Debate) Stage is Set
In a surprise to many political observers (including this one), the Biden and Trump campaigns agreed this week to two debates: one in June on CNN and the second on ABC 📺❗️ in September. At first glance, this might seem like a return to "normalcy" in presidential campaigning, but scratching beneath the surface reveals it's anything but that.
We're talking ads and media below, but first, let's dive into why this debate announcement is such a big deal and more than a little unusual.
📆 Old political hands will tell you a campaign never gets real until Labor Day. While this has changed over the past few election cycles, especially with the emergence of social media and 24/7 cable news, a presidential debate in June puts the final nail in that coffin 🪦.
🎤 The candidates kicked the traditional debate organizers (Commission on Presidential Debates, which has produced 33 debates since 1988) to the curb and made their own debate plan. The fact that the campaigns pulled this off came as a shock, not least because no one believed that the Trump and Biden campaigns could agree on anything, let alone communicate directly to make a deal like this. Adiós, Commission! 👋
🛜 Nothing against ABC, but the September event will essentially be the first social media debate in American history. Forget what happens on stage over the course of an hour; the "highlights" or "crash and burns" will be seen by millions of Americans through their social media feeds, as well as via packaged paid advertising on every platform that allows for it.
Expect paid influencers to also be lined up to "analyze" what happened on stage for their millions of viewers. 🙋🏻♂️ Note to campaigns: I'm available!
We have a short poll below on the debate, but for now let’s talk advertising and media.
The AI Arms Race: Are Democrats Bringing a Pea Shooter to a Gunfight? 🫛🔫
As the 2024 election approaches, it's clear that artificial intelligence is going to be a major player in shaping the outcome. But while both Democrats and Republicans are grappling with how to harness this game-changing technology, their approaches couldn't be more different.
On the GOP side, Brad Parscale – the digital mastermind behind Trump's 2016 victory – is back with a vengeance. In 2020, Parscale was 'involuntarily detained' by a SWAT team after he reportedly hit his wife and was found to have 10 guns inside his home.
He's touting a new AI-powered platform that he claims will revolutionize campaigning and usher in a wave of conservative victories. With deep-pocketed backers and millions already flowing in from the Trump campaign and RNC, Parscale has the resources to go all-in on AI. 💰🎯
In contrast, Democrats are taking a more cautious approach. With digital efforts designed to help “Democratic campaigns and organizations leverage generative AI responsibly and effectively,” it appears some orgs are wary of the ethical pitfalls and potential backlash that could come with embracing AI too aggressively.
The Biden campaign is using AI for basic tasks like modeling audiences and drafting emails, but they've put strict guardrails in place to avoid crossing any red lines. Progressive groups and some candidates are being a bit more adventurous, but even they seem to be proceeding with caution.
While Dems measured approach may be admirable from an ethical standpoint, it could leave them outgunned by the GOP's AI arsenal, and devotion to winning at all costs.
It's a high-stakes balancing act, and the outcome could well determine who ends up in the White House. 🏛️
Money Can't Buy Love (or Votes): The Myth of Ad Spending in Elections 💸🗳️
Remember when I broke down the jaw-dropping $1,118 cost per vote in the Iowa caucuses? 😱 Well, it looks like the trend of astronomical ad spending with little to show for it is alive and well in the 2024 election cycle.
Case in point: the recent Maryland Democratic Senate primary. Rep. David Trone dropped a staggering $62 million of his own cash into the race, only to come up short. That's right – he shelled out a whopping $200+ per vote, and still couldn't seal the deal. 💸❌
It's a stark reminder that in the world of political campaigns, money isn't everything. Sure, a well-funded war chest can help you blanket the airwaves and flood voters' mailboxes. But if your message doesn't resonate, or if you're up against a stronger candidate, all the ad dollars in the world won't save you. 📺🗑️
Trone’s primary opponent Angela Alsobrooks was outspent 9:1 but still won handily, despite polls showing a much closer race (file that note on polling effectiveness for later!).
Alsobrooks ran a spot some called “avengers level”, which while short on creativity let voters know that virtually every political figure of note In Maryland was on her side, and was clearly effective.
This trend isn't limited to just Iowa and Maryland, either.
Across the country, we're seeing self-funded candidates and super PACs burning through cash at an alarming rate, often with little to show for it. It's almost as if there's a perverse incentive to spend more and more, just to prove you're a "serious" contender.
But here's the thing: voters are smarter than that. They can smell inauthenticity and desperation a mile away. And no amount of slick advertising can make up for a lack of genuine connection and trust.
So, to all the campaigns out there gearing up for 2024, take note: before you start writing those big checks, make sure you've got a message that actually resonates with voters. Because at the end of the day, it's not about how much you spend – it's about how well you spend it. 💡✅
Twitch Streamers: The New Political Influencers on the Block 🎮🗳️
Forget traditional news networks – for many young voters, the real political debates are happening on a platform you might not expect: Twitch. 🎮💬
For the uninitiated, Twitch is a live streaming platform primarily associated with gaming. But in recent years, it's also become a hotbed for political commentary, with streamers like Hasan Piker amassing millions of followers and using their platforms to shape public opinion. 📈🗳️
Piker, dubbed the "left's favorite political Twitch streamer," has been making waves lately with his critiques of President Biden. In a recent interview with Wired, he called out Biden for failing to deliver on key promises, particularly around abortion rights and immigration.
"I urged and lent support to Joe Biden in the last election, and there were a lot of promises that he had made... on domestic policy, codifying Roe v. Wade, protecting abortion rights and immigration," Piker said. "He was going to basically reverse everything that Donald Trump had done, and he did none of that."
No doubt younger voters have issues with Biden. A lot at play there, much of what we have covered in earlier posts, but the influence of platforms like Twitch and TikTok are very real, and when influencers like Piker, who commands an audience of 2.6 million, voice those frustrations, it can have a real impact on how their followers view the president and the Democratic party.
In fact, a recent study found that 17% of voters blame Biden for the end of Roe v Wade. The comments of one of those voters may reflect the “hot takes” being offered by streamers like Piker.
“There should be no restrictions on abortion whatsoever,” said Ana Juarez Ramirez, 18, of Nogales, Ariz. Yet he says Mr. Biden made empty promises on many issues, including abortion.
“Biden did not fully criticize or condemn the taking away of people’s rights,” he said.
The fact that influential figures like Piker are amplifying this narrative highlights the challenge Democrats face in controlling the messaging around complex issues. In an age where many young people get their news from non-traditional sources like Twitch, a single streamer's hot take can carry more weight than a carefully crafted White House press release. 🎤🔥
The best strategy to set the record straight?
Paid advertising, and tons of it.
What’s Next?
The ads are coming fast and furious now. Just two examples from the presidential campaign below, with countless spots running in battleground states with funding from independent expenditure groups.
MAGA Hits Hard on the Economy
Bro! Enviro Groups Rally for Biden in Michigan
We’ll Leave It With This Ad from West Virginia
West Virginians had an election earlier this month that was — to say the least — explosive. 💣 The defining issue among the candidates for Governor was not education (ranked #48 in nation), infrastructure (#50), or healthcare (#48), but transgender rights.
This is an ad against one candidate for WV Governor who actually won the election! In fairness, his attacks against his opponents were even worse.
Ouch.
Thanks for checking in, and hope you have a good weekend. Before you leave, take this quick survey on the Presidential debate!