Deepfakes, Data, and Dollars: The High-Stakes Battleground of 2024 Political Advertising
The 2024 Presidential Ad Wars Have Begun
We’re finally there. OK, it’s “only” 238 days until Election Day but the nominees are set and the ads are flying.
In this issue:
🥊 President Biden took off the gloves in his State of the Union Speech which kicked off the 2024 General Election campaign in earnest. He has followed up with a massive six-week, $30 million TV and digital ad buy this past weekend to offer a “full-throated contrast” to the policies of his predecessor. The 1st ads are out, but did the Biden team pull their punch? See the ad and judge for yourself.
🚨An eye-opening scorecard issued by the non-profit org Accountable Tech reveals that all major social media platforms are failing to adequately prepare for potential threats to election integrity. Critical vulnerabilities include lack of safeguards against deepfakes, AI-generated political ads, and insufficient transparency. Some platforms have even dismantled election integrity teams. What does this mean for our democracy? Um…not anything good.
🎥 Speaking of A.I., in a world where social media platforms are already struggling to combat election misinformation, a recent study by HarrisX reveals that most U.S. adults failed to correctly identify whether AI-generated videos were created by humans or by OpenAI's text-to-video tool, Sora. With Sora's release on the horizon and the election season heating up, the question remains: will social media companies step up to the challenge, or will they continue to leave voters in the dark? Read on for our in-depth analysis.
Social Media Platforms Falling Short on Election Preparedness in 2024
Well, well, well. Looks like our beloved social media giants have some serious work to do!
Non-profit org Accountable Tech recently played professor, grading the election preparedness of ten leading platforms. Let's just say the report card isn't pretty. Out of a possible 100% match to recommendations in a report created by a group of nonpartisan tech policy groups, not a single platform scored above 62%.
Not gonna lie…that Nextdoor scored a 16% didn’t exactly surprise me. If you’ve dared to even spend 5 minutes searching there for a babysitter referral, or maybe a new gardener, you know exactly what I mean.
But wait, it gets better (or worse, depending on how you look at it). Only two of the platforms – TikTok and Snapchat – have policies to prohibit deceptively manipulated media (deep fakes) of public figures. And one of those platforms has its hands full with just a few issues in Washington D.C.
Meanwhile, X (formerly known as Twitter) decided to completely dismantle its election integrity team. I guess they figured, 'Who needs a dedicated team to combat election misinformation and manipulation when you can just wing it?’ This will grow more concerning as industry-wide layoffs and cuts to election integrity safety teams are likely to spread.
Who is going to get this right before November? Well, it's not just up to the platforms to get their act together. Policymakers and regulators need to step up and hold these companies accountable for their role in protecting our democratic processes. With the level of dysfunction in Congress at this moment, the odds seem…slim and none.
So, there you have it, folks. The tech gurus (and elected officials) have some serious work to do before the 2024 elections. Will they step up to the plate, or will they continue to leave us vulnerable to manipulation and misinformation?
Stay tuned for the next thrilling installment of "Democracy vs. The Algorithm"! 🍿
(Editors note: 🧢 tip to the excellent Substack pub Anchor Change from for turning us on to this study. Check it out if you get a chance!)
So, tell us something good!
Well, guess it depends on how you view it. Generative video technology and AI are advancing at quantum speed. What we saw just months (if not weeks) ago has already been eclipsed with new videos released by OpenAI's Sora that take its motion, quality and 'camera work' to new heights.
Of course, the implications for the film and advertising industry are jaw-dropping.
But it's not just the creative industries that are feeling the heat. A recent study by HarrisX revealed that most U.S. adults struggled to distinguish between AI-generated videos and those created by humans. This finding raises serious concerns about the potential for deepfakes and manipulated content to influence the 2024 elections, especially given the lack of preparedness among major social media platforms, as highlighted by the Accountable Tech scorecard.
It's easy to get caught up in the fear and uncertainty surrounding these rapid advancements. Will AI-generated content be used to deceive and manipulate voters? Will it further erode trust in our democratic institutions? These are valid concerns that we must address head-on.
However, it's important to remember that technology itself is neutral. It's how we choose to use it that matters.
I like to think that the real magic can happen when we combine these tools with human insight, creativity, and strategic thinking. It's the collaboration between human and machine that will ultimately shape the future of advertising, film making, and even our political discourse.
I shared this case study from Cadbury in India with a group of grad students in my “social media advertising” course, also at the USC Annenberg School.
If you’re curious about how marketers are using AI to build out campaigns, take a look. It will either totally freak you out, or generate a ton of ideas for your clients.
OK, cool. Can we talk about political ads now?
Of course. Now that the State of the Union is behind us, let’s see what’s happening in the (advertising) race for the White House.
Biden Campaign Drops $30M in first wave of ads
The Biden team launched a six-week, $30 million TV and digital ad buy this past weekend aimed at drawing out a “full-throated” contrast between Biden’s vision for “where the country can go” against “Donald Trump’s dark, dangerous and chaotic vision for the country.”
The first spot didn’t quite use the same approach we saw in the SOTU, going instead for a “happy warrior” vibe that attempts to address age concerns and change the narrative on his administration’s achievements. The ad is fine enough, but I wouldn’t expect the tone to continue.
Dark Brandon will return.
Social media: In fact, a look at Biden’s social media buys this week show highly targeted (women, suburban swing states) digital spots that draw the contrast in a sharper way. There were 172 spots (!!) in total, most similar to this YouTube pre-roll ad below. 👇
Media: As you can see from this map, the campaign is targeting swing states (NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC, WI,MI) where Biden will be hitting women and independent voters hard. The Biden Team and Super PAC’s supporting his re-election will be pounding these areas with hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 250+ days. ⬇️
How About Team Trump?
No announcements from the Trump campaign on spending plans, but before the speech, MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned Super PAC, released a brutal ad regarding Biden’s age that questioned whether he would even survive a second term. And just to twist the knife, they ran it during MSNBC’s Morning Joe.
Social media: The same search on the Google Ads transparency site didn’t show any campaign ads, but it did include a significant fundraising effort. Very interesting message from Trump here as he says “if you can’t do it now, don’t even think about it. Take care of your family.” It’s a bit off brand, and kinda smart.
Media: With their fundraising ads the Trump team also took a much different approach, spreading $206,000 around the entire country. No doubt they will sharpen their focus on the same swing states in the coming weeks. Right?
What’s Next?
Almost too many developments in the world of political advertising to cover here, but next week we will dive into a study that explored U.S. voter sentiment towards political advertising in the context of ad placement and frequency.
We will keep an eye out on things for you. Until then — happy advertising!
PS - Share any ads or content (good, bad, or awful) here.
Also on the lookout for contributors. If you have something to share about the ad world and Election ‘24 reach out.
Thanks for reading!