'Night Night' for Team Trump?

From Biden's Stumble to Harris's Sprint: The 2024 Election's Dramatic Turn

What a difference a month makes. We've gone from Joe Biden struggling to muster enthusiasm from his Democratic base to an electric surge for the Harris/Walz ticket, complete with packed rallies and record-breaking fundraising numbers. It's undeniably a whole new ballgame...but is it "game over" for Donald Trump?

Conventional wisdom says not so fast. Here's why:

📺 The Trump campaign has booked hundreds of millions in TV ads for the coming weeks.

💣 They're gearing up for unrelenting attacks on the Harris campaign.

🏧 The economy remains a major concern for many Americans, and immigration is a hot-button issue in many parts of the country.

So, there are still plenty of ways for this race to take yet another dramatic turn. The question is: Does Trump have a miracle shot in his bag that can change the trajectory of this race? Let's dive in.

It’s All About the Ad Spend…or is it?

While many political blogs focus on daily poll fluctuations and horse-race coverage, we've always prided ourselves on digging deeper. Our focus on advertising, media buys, and creative strategy has never been more relevant than in this pivotal moment of the 2024 race.

In what Axios dubbed the "first break-glass moment" of the Trump campaign, his team has opened up the wallet for its largest media buy to date, targeting the entire range of "battleground" states. It's clear that Harris' entrance into the race has forced a recalibration of the Trump group's ad strategy.

Interestingly, some of Trump's biggest investments are in sunbelt states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona—areas that until recently were firmly in the GOP column. As the electoral map expands, ad spending increases exponentially. (Oh, to be a local TV station owner in Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, or Phoenix right now. Sigh. 💰💰)

The spending is ramping up on both sides, with strong indications that ad spending in the 2024 election will outpace 2020. Total ad spending on the presidential race just this month (as of 8/14) is almost $40M higher than this time four years ago. Expect those numbers to skyrocket in the coming weeks.

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