Navigating the Aftermath: Campaign Strategies in Turbulent Times
Plus, Introducing Ctrl+Alt+Think: A Deeper Look at Society and Politics
Like everyone else, I've been trying to unpack exactly what happened this past weekend in Pennsylvania. Of course, I've gotten a ton of texts and calls asking what it all means for Election '24 and my response has been the same: now is not the time for political handicapping, the blame game (a/k/a Washington D.C.'s favorite pastime), and definitely not wild conspiracy theories.
Instead, my approach has been twofold:
Wait and see what we learn about the shooter's motivations; and
Turn off the cable news and social media feeds, and instead turn to serious and thoughtful people for broader perspective on what this all means for our country and society more generally.
This approach - of seeking broader perspective and resisting knee-jerk reactions - is at the heart of a new initiative I'm calling ctrl+alt+think. In times of crisis, when the temptation to jump to conclusions is strongest, we need more than just analysis of the latest poll numbers or ad strategies. We need perspective. We need wisdom. We need to step back and consider the bigger picture.
Ctrl+alt+think is about fostering this kind of nuanced, thoughtful analysis of complex political issues. It's about recognizing that while our current challenges may feel unprecedented, we're not the first to grapple with violence, division, and the search for unity in times of crisis.
You can see more about it below.
That said, ctrl+alt+persuade is here to provide insight on how campaigns respond to a changing political environment strategically and tactically.
So, let's explore just a few of the campaign-related questions I've been hearing:
Will these events impact advertising spending?
How might campaign messaging change in response?
What are the potential effects on down-ballot races?
How are social media platforms responding, and what implications might that have?
Let's dive in and explore these issues, always keeping in mind that our understanding may evolve as more information comes to light.
Q- Will This Impact Advertising Spending?
Answer: No, advertising will stop for a bit then come back bigger and louder than ever.
In fact, most readers probably heard that the Biden-Harris campaign took down its advertising in the aftermath of the events in , with the suspension of a $50m ad buy that was intended to offer counter-programming to the GOP convention this week in Milwaukee.
While the move was meant to “lower the temperature in our politics,” the likelihood is that this pause will be very short-lived.
🚨🚨NEWSFLASH: The Biden Campaign just announced they will be back on the air during the convention. So that was a mighty short pause for “civility.”
Where it will make a major difference is in fundraising and spending. Moments after the shooting, Elon Musk went on his platform “X” to announce that he was endorsing Trump. The following day he pledged to give at least $45m a month to a new pro-Trump Super PAC.
This commitment, along with massive financial commitments from a handful of other billionaires, guarantees that Trump will have all the resources he needs, and then some, over the next few months.
Q - How Might Campaign Messaging Change in Response to these Events?
Answer: Immediately after this incident we heard pleas from both sides of the aisle to tone down the rhetoric. President Biden made the case in several public announcements, including an oval office address, and candidates like GOP Senate candidate David McCormick called for a “suspension of negative advertising” in his race against Senator Bob Casey, Jr. (D).
Can we expect this to actually happen?
No. Absolutely not.
Campaign ads are based on messages that candidates — and their consultants — believe will lead to victory at the polls. While democrats may need to recalibrate the language used in these “attack” ads, the fact remains that Trump’s greatest vulnerability is concern about his commitment to the rule of law, and democracy more generally.
Note: While I try not to editorialize on this blog, it is disingenuous (at best) for leading Republicans to claim that people need to stop the “grossly irresponsible talk” that Trump poses a threat to democracy. The political violence that occurred on January 6th happened, as did an attempt to overturn the legitimate results of the 2020 election. As such it's fair game.
So, will messaging that reminds voters of these threats to democracy and the rule of law be effective? Prior to the events of the past few weeks, there was ample evidence that it would, especially among crucial swing-state voters and independents.
We will see what the polling says in the next weeks, but my guess is that this type of messaging from Biden-Harris will continue, along with a renewed focus on Project 2025, at least if the status quo remains.
That said, a new face at the top of the ticket for Democrats would radically, dramatically and (totally) change that calculation.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves…🕛🕖🕘
Q - What are the Potential Effects on Down-ballot Races?
Answer: Senate and House Democrats were seeing major slippage in polling even before the events of last Saturday, due to concerns about Biden’s debate performance and perceived fitness for the job.
New polling indicates this trend is continuing.
It’s too early to tell whether this is related to the assassination attempt or Biden continued struggles. Either way, Democrats are seeing what was a once-promising senate and house map rapidly change, as evidenced by the list of Senate races that are now listed as “toss-up’s” in projections as of July 17th.
Arizona: Open
Michigan: Open
Montana: Tester (D)
Nevada: Rosen (D)
Ohio: Brown (D)
PA: Casey (D)
WI: Baldwin (D)
This is clearly bad news for congressional Democrats, and the temperature will continue to get very hot in the White House.
Q - How are social media platforms responding, and what implications might that have?
Answer: While investigators have gained access to the shooter’s phone, reports show that they haven’t yet found evidence of a political or ideological impetus for his actions. However, social media platforms have been abuzz with wild conspiracy theories, and continued speculation about motives.
At this point, none of the social media platforms, except Snapchat, have commented publicly on what occurred.
Tech reporter Brian Fung accurately captured the response from the tech giants to the incident:
Amid the torrent of conspiracy theorizing, the social media platforms have been largely silent about their own role in how the event has played out online, reflecting a sharp departure from their previous hands-on approach to containing the spread of falsehoods that, left unchecked, could risk fueling further conflict.
None of the country’s largest social media platforms responded to repeated questions from CNN over multiple days this week about what actions they have taken in response to misinformation and conspiracy theories circulating about the Trump rally shooting. Meta, Google, TikTok and X did not respond. Only Snapchat issued a statement saying it is designed “differently from traditional social media” in that it doesn’t offer a curated news feed “where users can broadcast false information.”
The “hands-off” approach by social media companies reflects some of the broader concerns about the role of social media platforms in the run up to this years election.
If you missed it, I wrote about the lack of ad transparency from social media platforms last week in an article for the publication The Conversation. Check it out.
🔎 As we navigate these turbulent political waters, analyzing campaign strategies and dissecting media responses, it's clear that we need more than just tactical insights. We need a broader perspective to truly understand the forces shaping our political landscape. This realization has led me to an exciting new venture that I believe will complement our work here at Ctrl+Alt+Persuade. I'm thrilled to introduce you to a new initiative that aims to provide that wider context...
Announcing Ctrl+Alt+Think: Big Picture Insights for Challenging Times 🌎 📚
As we process an almost daily barrage of breaking news and almost unheard of political developments, I'm excited to introduce a new Substack newsletter that approaches politics and society from a broader perspective.
Ctrl+Alt+Think aims to provide the context behind the headlines, offering deeper insights into the forces driving massive changes not just in the U.S., but around the world.
While Ctrl+Alt+Persuade focuses on the day-to-day dynamics of elections and campaigns, “Think” will step back to examine the bigger picture. It's meant to complement our existing coverage, giving you a more comprehensive understanding of our complex political landscape through the insights of philosophers, historians, and great thinkers who look beyond the day to day to uncover deeper truths about politics and society.
As a special offer, Ctrl+Alt+Think will be available for free to paid Ctrl+Alt+Persuade subscribers starting August 1st. After an introductory period, it will transition to a separate paid subscription.
Don't miss out on this opportunity! Upgrade your subscription on Ctrl+Alt+Persuade today and get both newsletters for the price of one, beginning July 31st.
It's two unique perspectives on our political world, delivering both the "what" and the "why" of current events.
I invite you to check out Ctrl+Alt+Think and share your thoughts. Together, let's explore the deeper currents shaping our world today.
What's Next?
The GOP convention continues, along with the announcement of a new running mate for VP. Meanwhile, most of the political world, and millions of Americans, wait to see what’s next for President Biden and the top of the Democratic ticket.
Next week we’ll look at the ad plans, strategies and campaign tactics for the Trump-Vance ticket, as well as offer our own proposal for how Democrats can truly make their convention “must-see TV.”
See you then.
PS - Share any ads or content (good, bad, or awful) here.
Also on the lookout for contributors. If you have something to share about the ad world and Election ‘24 reach out.