Biden's Ads vs. Trump's Chaos
The 2024 Campaign Media Story...So Far
Welcome back to Ctrl+Alt+Persuade+Delete!
We didn’t post this week, and several loyal readers reached out to ask "where’s my weekly political ad fix?" To be fair, it was mostly family members and a handful of my students but it's always nice to be missed.
The reason for no post this past week was pretty simple. We were waiting to see more ads!
As a blog focused on the intersection of advertising, marketing, and politics, the goal is to bring you the inside scoop and big-picture takeaways, not just the same old partisan talking points.
But here's the thing: right now, one side is seriously outspending the other. While Biden's team is dropping cash like it's hot on a massive $30M ad blitz in key swing states, Trump's campaign has been all but missing on the advertising front. 🤫
Meanwhile, Biden's camp is going all-in on micro-targeting, crafting specialized messages for multiple audiences. They’re slicing and dicing their creative to focus on nearly every target audience they need to reach for the fall, and while not unpredictable (we did that one already!!) it's kind of impressive to watch.
You can see a few examples of the ads below, but let’s dig a little deeper into why this is so significant.
Trump's Missing Ads: Risky Strategy or a Cash-Strapped Reality?
Just after the Super Bowl (six long weeks ago!), we wrote about the huge gulf between Trump and Biden’s spending on social media. Since then, that gulf has turned into a chasm.
And while many stories are being filed about Team Trump’s fundraising challenges, it’s his massive legal costs that get the most attention.
Less is said about what all this means for his advertising and media effort, although New York Times reporters Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman recently addressed this issue in their piece "How Trump Is Scrambling to Raise Cash."
In summarizing the potential impact of the current fundraising and advertising gap between the Trump and Biden campaigns, they write:
"Money often winds up mattering less in presidential races than in down-ballot races. Voters pay attention to the candidates naturally, especially Mr. Trump, and the key states all wind up awash in advertising by the fall.
Yet recent presidential contests have been so excruciatingly close that everything has mattered, and Mr. Trump is preparing to face an especially large avalanche of Democratic spending this year."
From a marketing perspective, it's worth considering how Trump's unparalleled ability to command media attention may always help offset his lack of paid messaging. While earned media can be a powerful tool, it also comes with risks, as the campaign cedes control over the narrative.
Bottom line: it’s tough to control the narrative when you get a billion dollars in advertising dropped on your head. Even if you are Donald Trump.
Battlefield Advantage: Biden's Ad Assault
Here is why this is dangerous territory for Trump. A recent poll from the Save My Country Action Fund took a deep dive into the minds of swing-state voters, and the results are pretty eye-opening. 1
The poll asked about ten of Trump's most recent statements including his claim that immigrants are 'poisoning the blood of our country'; his vow to pardon rioters who attacked the Capitol; his promise to prosecute the Biden family without cause; his threat to inflict mass persecution on the 'vermin' opposition, and several more.
The result? Only 31% of these voters said they'd heard "a lot" about these statements.
Once they learned more? His unfavorability ratings shot up.
Fast.
The percentage of those who view Trump unfavorably jumps five points, from 53 percent to 58 percent, and 69 percent say Trump will bring “chaos to the presidency and our country.”
So, what does all this mean? Well, if Biden's team keeps pumping out ads in these crucial battlegrounds, hammering home Trump's most outrageous moments, it could be a game-changer.
All of this could change at any point, but for now (at least in the world of political advertising) this is a one-sided spending “bloodbath.”
Will Trump's Ad Absence Last?
I know what you're thinking - it's still early, and a lot could change between now and Election Day. Trump's crew could start spending big, and the airwaves could get pretty cluttered with outside groups throwing their two cents in. 💸
But right now, the ad spending gap is real, and it's telling us a lot about how these campaigns are thinking about the race. It's not just about the money - it's about the message, the strategy, and the big questions about the role of advertising in a very uncertain environment.
From AAPI to Gen Z: Biden's Early Arsenal
As noted above, Biden is dropping ads targeting all swaths of “gettable” voters. Young people, women, African-Americans, Asian Pacific Islanders, Latinos, and more. In addition, they are crafting quick-turnaround, rapid response ads like the “bloodbath” ad shared above, and a spot noting the anniversary of the passage of the Affordable Care Act highlighted below.
Here are just a few of the spots being seen by swing state voters as well as key target audiences across the country. Guessing many of you readers haven’t seen these — well, now you are.
Women and Roe v. Wade
AAPI (Asian American and Pacific Islanders) and the Economy
Flatline: Healthcare Reform
Swing Voters: Wisconsin and Michigan
Thus is just a sample of the spots running around the country. Seen anything interesting? Send my way.
Trump Shows up with an Immigration Ad…but on Truth Social?
There are scattered ads and/or videos by the Trump campaign and Super PAC’s supporting his candidacy, but the media placements are…questionable?
Here is the latest (and the really only) pure messaging spot we could find. It is running on Trump's own social media platform, Truth Social, which has a highly partisan user base, making it an echo chamber for his most fervent supporters.
It’s always good to fire up your base, but at this point running ads on this platform is the definition of “preaching to the converted.”
What’s Next?
Of course, it's still early in the campaign, and the advertising landscape could shift dramatically in the coming months, or even days! Trump's team may well ramp up their spending, and outside groups on both sides will undoubtedly flood the airwaves with their own messages.
Nevertheless, the current disparity in ad spending offers an important (and under- explored) glimpse into the divergent strategies of the two campaigns while raising intriguing questions about the role of paid media in modern presidential politics.
As always, we'll be closely monitoring the race and providing our unique perspective on the campaign strategies and tactics that will shape the 2024 election.
Stay tuned for more insights and analysis in the weeks and months ahead!
PS - Share any ads or content (good, bad, or awful) here.
Also on the lookout for contributors. If you have something to share about the ad world and Election ‘24 reach out.
Thanks for reading!
The survey polled 400 voters in each of three swing states—Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and weighted them in proportion with each state’s Electoral College votes. It omitted respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 and also said Biden didn’t legitimately win. In short, the poll was designed to survey voters who are genuinely gettable for Biden.