Campus Unrest and the 2024 Election: What Do Young Voters Really Care About?
Hint: It's Not Just Foreign Policy, According to Harvard Survey
It’s been a challenging week on campuses around the country, and here at Ctrl+alt+persuade as well, so we have a light post this week. Stay tuned though because we are working on some really cool new features as the 2024 Election roars on, with all signs showing that political ad spending in this cycle will outpace 2020.
But first…
📺 😆 We thought a little comic relief may be in order as some rather, um, interesting ads are starting to show up around the country.
📊 🔬 Of course, we can’t ignore the political impact of the current unrest on Election ‘24, so sharing some recent polling data from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics 47th Annual Youth Survey. The results may surprise you. ⚡️ 😮
Let’s start with the ads.
Blow that Bugle, Boy
Thoughts: This ad from State Sen. Mark Messmer is for an open seat in Indiana’s 8th Congressional District is a doozy. Too many puns to play with here, but we will definitely say it “blows.”
Best comment gets a free paid subscription through the election.
Politicians Are a Lot Like Diapers…
Thoughts: Baby kissing ranks right up there on the list of campaign trail cliche’s. In this spot Wisconsin Senate Candidate Eric Hovde introduces viewers to his baby grandson while he tells viewers about the danger of US debt for future generations. Unfortunately, his new “little nugget’s” squirming makes it a bit hard to follow the narrative.
The outtakes on this ad shoot must be a beaut!!!
🪆🇷🇺 Meanwhile in the Soviet Union…
Thoughts: Political ads aren’t just a thing in the U.S. The entire world has their own styles and approaches to political ads, but the “cringe” factor is universal.
In this spot, Communist Party presidential candidate Nikolai Kharitonov bemoans the end of the old ways and calls for the Soviet flag to fly above the Kremlin once again. The ad ends with the timeless slogan “We played at capitalism and that’s enough!”
❗️Spoiler alert: His opponent in the race, who goes by the name Vladimir Putin, won re-election with 87.8 percent of the vote. Mr. Kharitonov did finish 2nd in the race though with a very respectable 3.8 percent. At press time, it was still not clear how many electoral college votes that counted for.
OK…about the campus protests and their impact in November
Of course, not all the news in fun (well none of it is!) as student protests continue to roil US campuses. That isn’t stopping political pundits from weighing in on just what this will mean for the November election, with most TV analysts predicting bad news for the Biden campaign as the challenges mount at home and abroad.
A recent study from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics1 indicates that predicting the real effects are more complex than they may seem. While a clear majority of voters aged 18-29 support a permanent ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war (5-to-1 in favor), other issues perform far more strongly in the survey.
The study reveals that when asked about their most pressing national concerns in an open-ended question, only 8% of young Americans cited foreign policy, while a significantly larger proportion (27%) mentioned issues related to the economy.
This striking difference suggests that despite the ongoing unrest in Gaza and on college campuses, young voters are more focused on domestic economic matters, along with women’s reproductive rights, when considering their priorities for the upcoming election.
Even more revealing, the study asked respondents to compare 16 prominent areas of concern in a series of randomized match-ups, pitting two issues against each other. The results showed that economic issues, such as inflation, healthcare, housing, and jobs, consistently ranked as more important than other concerns, regardless of the issue they were paired against. This finding reinforces the idea that young Americans are prioritizing economic matters over other policy areas, including foreign policy and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Interestingly, the only issue that managed to outrank inflation in these match-ups was women's reproductive rights, which was considered more important by a margin of 57% to 43%. This exception highlights the importance of social issues to young voters, particularly in the wake of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Of course, data is subject to change, and this survey was taken one month ago, but it is unlikely that the “fundamentals” of this poll would change dramatically.
So the bottom line: is the war in Gaza front and center on the news, and in many people’s minds right now?
100% yes.
Will it cost Biden the election?
A lot can happen between now and November but for now, at least among young people aged 18-29, the answer appears to be no.
What’s Next?
We’re kind of hurting from the Lakers series loss to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA playoffs last night, but at least we can turn our attention to the🧢⚾️ Shohei Otani and Mookie Betts. (Apologies to fans of other clubs).
Hoping things calm down as we get closer to college graduation but we'll keep a close eye on campaign ‘24 and the campaign strategies and tactics that will shape the election.
And yes, stay tuned for some exciting new features at ctrl+alt+persuade coming soon.
Thanks for reading!
PS - Share any ads or content (good, bad, or awful) here.
Also on the lookout for contributors. If you have something to share about the ad world and Election ‘24 reach out.
The survey was conducted with 2,010 18-to-29-year-olds in English and Spanish between March 14 and 21, 2024. Data weighted to reflect population estimates based on age, race/Hispanic ethnicity, education, household income, census region by metropolitan area, and primary language within Hispanics. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.02%.