Ctrl+Alt+Unprecedented: Decoding the Unconventional Playbook of Election 2024
Unusual Times Lead to Unconventional Tactics
In a race where conventional wisdom seems to be thrown out the window at every turn, the 2024 election is shaping up to be a battle of unconventional strategies and unlikely alliances. From the rise of third-party disruptors to the rethinking of long-held voter registration dogma, this is most definitely an unusual election year.
So while the creative isn’t knocking our socks off yet, the tactics being used this year are worth a deeper look.
Third-Party Thrills and Spills: RFK Jr.'s Disruptive Bid and the Demise of No Labels
Big week in the world of third-party candidates and political parties. News coverage with predictions on the impact of RFK Jr candidacy on the election are all over the map — many reading like this one from Politico: How Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Could Doom Joe Biden (h/t to reader and pal Jim Hickman for sharing).
Conventional wisdom says that Biden will be hurt by his candidacy, but RFK’s latest ad on YouTube highlights just how hard it is to tell where his votes will come from. Judging by the harsh anti-immigration messaging (and let’s face it, a sort of harsh voice) coming from his camp maybe he’s looking to poach Trump voters as well?
Meanwhile, the Biden Team is taking no chances and has built a team to respond to RFK and other prospective 3rd party candidates. Unusual in campaigns to devote time, energy and $$ to candidates polling at 10% and below, but Democrats are still hurting from losing critical votes to 3rd Party spoilers in 2016 and 2000.
Most of the anti-RFK advertising is coming in the form of glorified trolling (courtesy of the Democratic National Committee) but if they are worried about RFK cutting into Biden’s margin in critical swing states look for the real ads to start running.
Meanwhile the group “No Labels” announced this week that despite spending millions to launch a credible third-party candidate and campaign they are throwing in the towel on the effort.
📰 Newsflash for 3rd party hopefuls, like the one and only Ringo Starr said long ago…
🎵 It Don’t Come Easy🎵
Political Nerd Alert **A Gift from Nate Cohn and 538**
Just how much damage could these third party voters do to Biden and Trump? What if younger voters stay home, or older voters shift to Biden?
538’s “Swing-O-Matic” shows what could happen in the 2024 election if President Biden or former President Trump gains ground with different demographic groups — and if turnout shifts among others.
They developed a very cool interactive tool that allows you to “turn the knobs” on turnout for different audiences in order to create your own election scenario. Go to the link and play around with how different parts of the electorate might vote and just how high or low that group's turnout is. As you increase or decrease support the Electoral College map will adjust as some states flip to red or blue.
What it doesn’t tell you is what we can expect to happen if Biden and supportive SuperPac’s continue to massively outspend Trump on ads nationally, and in swing states.
If anyone knows really smart tech folks that can build that type of a tool count us in!! (We promise a fair revenue share🤓).
Ctrl+Alt+Rethink: Dems Debate Voter Registration Strategy Amid Shifting Tides
One of the core elements of any successful democratic campaigns from time immemorial has been voter registration. Conventional wisdom has always said that Democrats benefit most from voter registration efforts, especially among young and hard-to-reach voters. As a side benefit, these “voter reg” programs are also a sort of farm system for young campaign volunteers, offering a direct way to get engaged in campaign activities. (Believe me, I know!)
A recent article from the Washington Post reports on a controversial memo from a progressive data scientist, Aaron Strauss, suggesting Democrats roll back those efforts as data is showing a shift among unregistered voters towards Trump.
This is a stark contrast to the long-held belief that increasing voter registration, particularly among people of color and young voters, would inherently benefit Democrats. Strauss goes as far as to suggest that donors focus their registration efforts on "heavily pro-Biden populations" like Black Americans, while employing more targeted techniques to filter out likely Trump supporters among other groups.
Maria Teresa Kumar of Voto Latino, worries that strategies like this could lead to a disinvestment in registering young people of color. Others say Biden and his team need to be highly strategic with their media, outreach and ad strategy in a highly volatile environment.
What do you think?
Ctrl-alt-persuade: Now find us on instagram!!
Want to see the latest ads on social? Look no further than our brand new Instagram account at https://www.instagram.com/ctrlaltpersuade.
We'll be sharing the latest and greatest (and sometimes the worst) in political advertising, along with our signature blend of analysis, humor, and behind-the-scenes insights.
What can you expect to see on IG that you don’t get on the Substack? The site will be a space for sharing ads as they are released, along with a special feature called “Ctrl+Alt+Critique” where we do a deep dive into the ads from an insiders perspective.
Will it be a little cheesy?
You bet. But hey, its politics.
Visit and follow us here.
Very interesting…but can we please get to the ads?
The biggest feedback I get from readers is appreciation for sharing the ads. My guess is that it’s because most folks are in social media echo chambers or majority blue/red states and aren’t getting a fair look at what many are seeing around the country.
Have no fear, we will share as many ads as we can to try and provide context and insight on what’s happening in Election ‘24.
There’s only one challenge: the majority of the ads are pretty bad, and you don’t want to see those…unless they are so bad they’re funny.
Promise to share those.
But if political marketers are going to start showing ads on streaming services like Netflix or Amazon Prime they need to pick up their ad game — fast.
In the meantime here are a few items that caught our eye.
The Battle Over TikTok Continues Online
Thoughts: We haven’t heard much about the TikTok ban since the House overwhelmingly passed its bill to force a change in ownership, but that doesn’t mean TikTok and others aren’t launching ads to fight the battle. TikTok has a massive ad and outreach campaign to drive support, while a group called The American Parents Coalition was launched just weeks ago and announced a “seven figure ad campaign” against TikTok. Both ads are…pretty annoying.
Are We Finally Seeing Trump on the Air?
Not exactly, but this immigration ad from the Republican National Committee gets close.
Thoughts: Immigration policy is top of mind for many voters. It is a potent issue. The Republican National Committee has launched a website called “Biden Bloodbath”which includes this ad on the website. Not sure that driving viewers to a website to watch ads is the most 2024 thing you can do, but I’m sure they have much more planned where this came from.
Old News, New Tricks: Biden-Harris Camp Repackages Local Coverage into Targeted YouTube Ads
This approach is definitely novel…at least for me. News coverage of Biden/Harris campaign stops to key swing states are being re-packaged and rebroadcast in the form of highly targeted YouTube ads in key markets.
Why would they do that?
1) Not a lot of people tune into the local news anymore.
2) The media buys are incredibly cheap, and these local news stories are really good.
Just how inexpensive is this tactic? See below.
Squad Goals? Moderate PAC Takes Aim at Progressive Dem in PA Primary Showdown
A congressional race in Pennsylvania is getting a lot of attention — and ad dollars — as a member of the so-called “Squad” is being targeted by a group called the Moderate PAC in the upcoming democratic primary election in Western PA, as they are supporting a primary challenge to Lee.
Thoughts: These ads shows just how divisive this topic is as Democratic in-fighting over the war is spilling into primary campaigns. Like we say in this week’s blog title — “unusual times.”
What’s Next?
As always, we'll be closely monitoring the race and providing our unique perspective on the campaign strategies and tactics that will shape the 2024 election.
Stay tuned for more insights and analysis in the weeks and months ahead!
PS - Share any ads or content (good, bad, or awful) here.
Also on the lookout for contributors. If you have something to share about the ad world and Election ‘24 reach out.
Thanks for reading!