The 2024 Election: Six Months To Go, Six Things We've Learned
It’s exactly six months to election day (give or take a day), and political advertising and media are kicking into high gear.
Back in the day, when yours truly was knee-deep in the campaign trenches, the old-timers would say, “nothing really matters until Labor Day."
We would take the summer off between a primary and general election, sort of like how old-school major league baseball players would have regular jobs in the off-season. Some young campaign workers would even leave the trail mid-campaign to work on a legendary rock and roll tour for a few months!
Those days are long gone.
Today's slugfests start as much as a year out, with non-stop political coverage, hyperventilating pundits, and the “everyone is an expert” world of partisan social media keeping political campaigns front and center.
But if you can take your eyes off the near-daily "horserace" polling (which, to be be real, is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine), the spicy testimony 🌶️😳coming out of that NYC courtroom , and the never-ending battle of the talking heads on cable news 📺🗣️, we can look back at the past six months to get a feel for what Election '24 has in store for us.
Here are six key lessons that we’ve learned so far.
Lesson #1: The spending is real.
In our very first issue we wrote that “political advertising spending is projected to rocket north of a staggering $17 billion this election cycle.” While the data is still coming in, most analysts are convinced 2024 ad spending will even exceed this projected all-time high.
It’s not just at the top of the ticket, where Biden set the pace with a historically early $30M buy, followed by an additional $14M this month targeting Black, Latino, and Asian American voters. Trump has been lagging far behind Biden in ad spending so far, but recent ad buys in PA (see #2 below) indicate his team is gearing up as well.
A closer look at key Senate races shows just how much cash will be spent this cycle. According to AdImpact, over $110M in advertising has been reserved in Montana, home to all of 588,000 likely voters in November. (Note to self: next time, invest in a Billings or Missoula TV or radio station).
Meanwhile, Indiana held its primary election this week, with ad spending seeing a 728% increase over 2022 levels and a 1,396% increase over 2020.
Just as important, it brought us this ad from Mark Messmer, who won the Republican nomination for U.S. House in Indiana's 8th CD.
Now this is must see TV.
Lesson #2: The GOP is all-in on immigration.
According to an article this week in the NY Times, the word “invasion” has appeared in 27 television ads for Republican candidates already — accounting for more than $5 million in ad spending. That surpasses the 22 uses of the word during the entire 2022 midterm cycle, which totaled nearly $3.3 million in ad spending.
The “ad invasion” is only just beginning, with Trump leaning heavily on immigration messaging in the spots he’s run to date.
Here is Trump’s latest from Pennsylvania. Let’s just say he hits the immigration issue… hard.
📺🧐 We’re not here to write ads for anybody, but guessing more than a few Democratic operatives caught this interview by Fox host Maria Bartiromo with Republican congressman (and retired Army Special Forces LT) Keith Self (R-TX) and said “get me into the edit bay, stat!!“
Lesson #3: Abortion is on the ballot, even where it’s not.
2024 has already proven that reproductive rights is a potent campaign issue. We shared an ad from earlier this year when Alabama voters sent Democrat Marilyn Lands, who campaigned on reproductive rights and IVF, to a surprise win in the Alabama State House.
Biden has made the issue central to his re-election effort with the ad below called “Willow’s Box” airing across the nation (and 5+ million YouTube views), along with targeted ads on abortion in battleground swing states like Arizona and Georgia.
Needless to say this will be a major issue for suburban women in key swing states.
Lesson #4: It's always the economy, stupid.
Poll after poll shows that the economy and inflation lead the way when voters are asked about what’s most important to them this election.
These issues show a decided advantage for Trump which have led some Senate candidates in battleground states to talk about the economic challenges facing the country without directly talking about Biden.
An ad released this week from U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) attempts to take on the issue by shifting blame from Biden Administration policies to “shrinkflation” and corporate greed.
Lesson #5: Beware the myth of the lost youth vote.
We wrote last week about polling by the Harvard Institute of Politics showing that young voters are far more focused on domestic economic matters, along with women’s reproductive rights, than foreign policy when considering their priorities for the upcoming election.
A poll taken for Axios from May 3-6 showed that “the war — and the accompanying protests — might not hurt President Biden's election prospects among young voters as much as previously thought.”
In fact, “the conflict in the middle east” ranked last (13%) among issues college students say are most important to them.
Is it possible that young voters won’t be motivated to turnout in November? Absolutely, but I would expect the Biden campaign to hit that audience very hard with messaging that speaks directly to their concerns as we get closer to the election.
Still, the potential exists to see a change in some traditional demographic voting patterns as there are indications of movement among black and latino voters although the impact of ad spending and targeted messaging to those communities could change the dynamic as get closer to November.
Lesson #6: Third Party: Will RFK, Jr Break Through?
Hunter S. Thompson once said that “when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.”
I’m not quite sure what the good doctor would have said about this election cycle but weird is a solid word, especially since we just learned that apparently a worm entered RFK Jr’s brain and ate a portion of it.
For this ad I decided to turn the camera on myself before reviewing. Luckily, it was a Sunday night and the🍷🥃 was already on hand.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that Bobby Kennedy, Jr. won’t be the next President of the United States.
Tell me what you think of the video review approach below!!
What’s Next?
As summer starts, we will see if voters as well as candidates turn away a bit from 24/7 politics, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
We will keep an eye out for all things ad and media, and are planning to roll out some new features soon, including a new instagram page, which is up and live now.
Please let us know if you are enjoying ctrl+alt+persuade below, or just say “hello!”
Thanks for reading!
PS - Share any ads or content (good, bad, or awful) here.
Also on the lookout for contributors. If you have something to share about the ad world and Election ‘24 reach out.
Lose the hat.